Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.81464e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.17496e-05           1           2          40          44          13        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.54516e-07           1           0          47          42          10        M1.0
est. ISN   =       50.0000           2          15          69          13           1        C2.0
 
together                             1.00        4.25       51.25       35.25        8.25     C8.3
 
realized                                                                                      C8.5