Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.23963e-05           1           1          68          23           7        C6.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.64057e-05           1           1          77          20           1        C4.7
GOES Xray  =   1.93225e-07           1           1          76          21           1        C4.0
est. ISN   =       42.0000           5          36          52           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             1.25       10.50       68.25       17.25        2.75     C3.8
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7