Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.53324e-05           1          16          76           7           0        C2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.71802e-05           5          43          47           5           0        C1.0
GOES Xray  =   8.84446e-08           2          42          53           3           0        C1.0
est. ISN   =       19.0000          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                             5.50       40.25       49.75        4.50        0.00     C1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.2