Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.99619e-05           3          32          61           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.57932e-05           5          52          39           4           0        B9.1
GOES Xray  =   1.18799e-07           1          17          76           6           0        C1.7
est. ISN   =       8.00000          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            14.75       35.50       46.25        3.50        0.00     B9.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6