Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.48043e-05           1           3          75          19           2        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.27687e-05           3          21          69           7           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   1.51884e-07           1           7          83           9           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =       26.0000           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                             3.00       21.00       65.25       10.25        0.50     C2.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.3