Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.04304e-05           1           3          64          30           2        C5.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.16588e-05           1           3          73          23           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   2.04801e-07           1           0          71          26           2        C4.6
est. ISN   =       31.0000           5          47          40           8           0        B9.8
 
together                             1.50       13.75       62.00       21.75        1.00     C3.8
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1