Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.07767e-05           1           2          66          28           3        C6.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.45683e-05           1           2          61          32           4        C6.8
GOES Xray  =   2.30375e-07           1           1          64          30           4        C6.5
est. ISN   =       44.0000           4          28          60           7           1        C1.5
 
together                             1.00        9.00       62.75       24.25        3.00     C4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C6.0