Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.80052e-05           1           3          49          39           8        C8.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.48069e-05           1           2          58          35           4        C8.3
GOES Xray  =   2.15138e-07           1           1          67          28           3        C5.4
est. ISN   =       52.0000           1          18          65          15           1        C2.1
 
together                             0.75        6.25       59.75       29.25        4.00     C5.4
 
realized                                                                                      C5.4