Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.76983e-05           2           2          76          20           0        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.68543e-05           2           7          79          11           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   2.13908e-07           1           1          69          26           3        C5.4
est. ISN   =       70.0000           1           3          68          26           2        C4.3
 
together                             1.25        3.50       73.00       20.75        1.50     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7