Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.72453e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.10527e-05           1           2          58          37           2        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   2.72015e-07           1           0          32          56          11        M1.7
est. ISN   =       100.000           1           1          65          29           4        C6.3
 
together                             0.50        0.75       51.25       41.00        6.50     C9.3
 
realized                                                                                      M5.3