Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.29986e-05           1           0          40          46          13        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.35167e-05           1           1          40          46          12        M1.4
GOES Xray  =   2.56360e-07           1           0          45          46           8        M1.1
est. ISN   =       80.0000           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             0.75        1.00       47.75       41.25        9.25     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      X1.5