Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.70608e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.68435e-05           1           0          44          45          10        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.22968e-07           1           1          65          31           2        C6.7
est. ISN   =       59.0000           3          19          61          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             0.75        5.50       54.75       33.50        5.50     C7.2
 
realized                                                                                      C5.5