Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.39544e-05           1           1          50          41           7        C9.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.82326e-05           1           1          71          25           2        C4.7
GOES Xray  =   1.69130e-07           1           5          76          18           0        C3.4
est. ISN   =       59.0000           3          19          61          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             1.00        7.00       64.50       25.00        2.50     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3