Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.48540e-05           1           3          75          19           2        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.23196e-05           2           3          72          23           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.75712e-07           1           2          85          12           0        C3.2
est. ISN   =       43.0000           4          35          54           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             2.00       10.75       71.50       14.75        1.00     C3.0
 
realized                                                                                      M4.2