Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.16198e-05           1           0          35          50          14        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.64075e-05           1           0          47          44           8        M1.0
GOES Xray  =   2.03531e-07           1           0          73          25           1        C4.4
est. ISN   =       34.0000           7          47          35          11           0        B8.9
 
together                             1.75       12.25       47.75       32.50        5.75     C6.1
 
realized                                                                                      M1.0