Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.16511e-05           1           3          80          16           0        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.37614e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.3
GOES Xray  =   1.60990e-07           1           6          78          15           0        C3.4
est. ISN   =       27.0000           6          52          35           7           0        B7.4
 
together                             2.00       16.25       68.50       13.25        0.00     C2.8
 
realized                                                                                      C3.7