Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.77815e-06          15          78           6           1           0        B3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.47206e-06          23          73           3           1           0        B2.6
GOES Xray  =   3.35056e-08          10          89           1           0           0        B3.5
est. ISN   =       20.0000          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            15.25       74.25        9.25        1.25        0.00     B3.5
 
realized                                                                                      B5.4