Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.10126e-05           1           0          42          43          14        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.01247e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.82184e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       17.0000          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                             4.50       16.00       34.00       36.00        9.50     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      C4.2