Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.01422e-05           1           4          62          31           2        C5.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.60236e-05           1           1          80          17           1        C4.3
GOES Xray  =   2.07753e-07           1           1          72          23           3        C4.4
est. ISN   =       32.0000           4          46          38          12           0        C1.0
 
together                             1.25       13.50       63.00       20.75        1.50     C3.8
 
realized                                                                                      C3.9