Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.97087e-05           1           4          65          29           1        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.55386e-05           1           0          52          40           7        C9.5
GOES Xray  =   1.74955e-07           1           3          84          12           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =       72.0000           1           5          54          36           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.50        3.50       63.75       29.25        3.00     C4.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.0