Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.01594e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.01543e-05           5          27          63           5           0        C1.5
GOES Xray  =   1.07852e-07           2          24          71           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =       88.0000           1           0          72          24           3        C4.5
 
together                             2.25       13.50       71.75       11.75        0.75     C2.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.4