Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.86931e-05           5          42          50           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.38147e-05           3          54          40           3           0        B8.9
GOES Xray  =   1.90687e-07           1           2          78          17           2        C4.0
est. ISN   =       74.0000           1           8          55          33           3        C6.6
 
together                             2.25       26.75       55.75       14.00        1.25     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.2