Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.15135e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.30883e-05           2           3          74          21           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.40291e-07           1           7          78          14           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =       68.0000           1           8          67          23           1        C3.8
 
together                             1.25        5.25       75.00       18.25        0.25     C3.2
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9