Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.32071e-05           5          25          65           5           0        C1.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.70020e-05           4          44          47           5           0        C1.0
GOES Xray  =   9.43909e-08           1          32          67           0           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =       45.0000           4          25          61           7           3        C1.7
 
together                             3.50       31.50       60.00        4.25        0.75     C1.3
 
realized                                                                                      B8.3