Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.06902e-05           1           2          67          27           3        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.90570e-05           2           7          81           9           1        C2.6
GOES Xray  =   2.16321e-07           1           1          64          31           3        C6.5
est. ISN   =       43.0000           4          35          54           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             1.75       11.50       66.50       18.00        2.25     C3.6
 
realized                                                                                      C1.2