Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.23334e-05           1           0          38          48          13        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.65016e-05           1           0          47          44           8        M1.0
GOES Xray  =   2.02490e-07           1           0          74          24           1        C4.4
est. ISN   =       41.0000           5          36          50           7           2        C1.3
 
together                             1.25        9.50       52.50       30.75        6.00     C6.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9