Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.23199e-05          10          69          21           0           0        B5.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.42288e-05           3          59          36           2           0        B8.7
GOES Xray  =   4.80555e-08           8          83           8           1           0        B5.3
est. ISN   =       60.0000           3          17          61          18           1        C3.2
 
together                             6.00       57.00       31.50        5.25        0.25     B7.3
 
realized                                                                                      B7.4