Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.35283e-05           1           3          75          20           1        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.66658e-05           2           7          78          12           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.57382e-07           1           5          79          15           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =       56.0000           2          19          62          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             1.25        8.75       73.50       15.75        0.75     C3.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.3