Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.23823e-05           1           4          77          18           0        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.50781e-05           1          10          77          12           0        C2.4
GOES Xray  =   1.57867e-07           1           5          79          15           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =       48.0000           4          21          63           9           3        C2.0
 
together                             1.50       10.25       74.00       13.50        0.75     C2.8
 
realized                                                                                      C2.5