Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.57229e-05           1           2          77          18           2        C4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.25170e-05           2           3          76          19           0        C3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.89181e-07           1           2          77          18           2        C4.0
est. ISN   =       79.0000           1           4          65          26           4        C5.0
 
together                             0.75        3.25       73.75       20.25        2.00     C4.0
 
realized                                                                                      C2.5