Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.52060e-05           1           0          47          43           9        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.59064e-05           1           0          51          40           8        C9.6
GOES Xray  =   2.75713e-07           1           0          31          56          12        M1.8
est. ISN   =       88.0000           1           0          72          24           3        C4.5
 
together                             0.25        0.25       50.75       40.75        8.00     C9.9
 
realized                                                                                      C4.9