Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.12788e-05           1           0          39          45          15        M1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.52411e-05           1           0          57          35           7        C8.4
GOES Xray  =   2.33068e-07           1           2          60          33           4        C6.6
est. ISN   =       91.0000           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             0.25        1.00       57.75       33.25        7.75     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3