Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.98417e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.37336e-05           1           2          56          38           3        C8.1
GOES Xray  =   2.42421e-07           1           0          40          52           7        M1.2
est. ISN   =       66.0000           3           7          70          19           1        C3.2
 
together                             1.00        2.75       53.50       37.75        5.00     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      C5.7