Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.03408e-05           2          36          58           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.52801e-05           4          52          41           3           0        B9.5
GOES Xray  =   1.35507e-07           1           8          78          13           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =       51.0000           1          17          68          13           1        C2.2
 
together                             1.50       28.75       61.25        8.25        0.25     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.4