Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.39939e-05          14          60          24           2           0        B6.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.20079e-05           9          66          24           1           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   6.89533e-08           6          68          26           0           0        B7.1
est. ISN   =       51.0000           1          17          68          13           1        C2.2
 
together                             7.25       53.00       35.50        4.00        0.25     B8.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.0