Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.85077e-05           2           3          72          23           0        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.16013e-05           1           4          72          23           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.86243e-07           1           2          77          18           2        C3.7
est. ISN   =       52.0000           1          18          65          15           1        C2.1
 
together                             1.00        7.00       71.50       19.75        0.75     C3.7
 
realized                                                                                      C4.0