Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.87484e-05           2           4          70          24           0        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.35333e-05           1           3          80          16           0        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   1.72807e-07           1           5          80          14           0        C3.2
est. ISN   =       46.0000           4          24          61           8           3        C1.8
 
together                             2.00        9.00       72.75       15.50        0.75     C3.2
 
realized                                                                                      C2.4