Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.32087e-05          13          64          21           2           0        B6.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.93725e-06          17          74           8           1           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   2.91159e-08          13          86           1           0           0        B3.0
est. ISN   =       53.0000           1          17          63          18           1        C2.5
 
together                            11.00       60.25       23.25        5.25        0.25     B4.9
 
realized                                                                                      B4.4