Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.83272e-05           1           2          50          39           8        C8.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.55938e-05           1           0          52          40           7        C9.5
GOES Xray  =   1.58947e-07           1           5          78          16           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =       52.0000           1          18          65          15           1        C2.1
 
together                             0.25        7.00       61.25       27.50        4.00     C4.9
 
realized                                                                                      C2.0