Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.79393e-05           1          10          78          10           1        C2.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.14089e-05           4          22          68           6           0        C1.6
GOES Xray  =   1.32552e-07           1           9          80          10           0        C2.2
est. ISN   =       44.0000           4          28          60           7           1        C1.5
 
together                             2.00       17.75       71.50        8.25        0.50     C2.0
 
realized                                                                                      C2.4