Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.74693e-05           1          11          79           8           1        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.13815e-05           4          23          67           6           0        C1.6
GOES Xray  =   1.32472e-07           1          10          79          10           0        C2.2
est. ISN   =       44.0000           4          28          60           7           1        C1.5
 
together                             2.00       18.50       71.25        7.75        0.50     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8