Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.98019e-05           1           4          64          30           1        C4.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.38115e-05           1           2          56          38           3        C8.1
GOES Xray  =   1.85167e-07           1           2          77          18           2        C3.8
est. ISN   =       57.0000           2          20          62          15           1        C2.7
 
together                             0.75        7.50       64.75       25.25        1.75     C4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C3.2