Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.26546e-05           1           1          81          17           0        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.69227e-05           2           7          80          10           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.48106e-07           1           6          79          14           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =       50.0000           2          15          69          13           1        C2.0
 
together                             1.25        7.50       77.25       13.50        0.50     C2.8
 
realized                                                                                      C6.5