Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.22306e-05           5          28          60           7           0        C1.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.78536e-05           7          35          53           5           0        C1.1
GOES Xray  =   9.20560e-08           1          37          61           1           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =       39.0000           5          47          41           6           1        B9.6
 
together                             4.50       36.75       53.75        4.75        0.25     C1.2
 
realized                                                                                      C1.2