Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.90288e-06          14          78           7           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.20392e-05           8          66          25           1           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   6.05768e-08           7          72          20           1           0        B6.4
est. ISN   =       54.0000           2          19          62          17           0        C2.5
 
together                             7.75       58.75       28.50        5.00        0.00     B6.8
 
realized                                                                                      B4.2