Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.90019e-05           2           5          69          24           0        C4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.19112e-05           1           3          55          39           2        C7.9
GOES Xray  =   1.66887e-07           1           5          76          18           0        C3.8
est. ISN   =       45.0000           4          25          61           7           3        C1.7
 
together                             1.75        9.75       65.25       22.00        1.25     C3.8
 
realized                                                                                      B4.4