Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.95770e-05           1           4          65          29           1        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.31088e-05           1           4          57          35           3        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   1.74271e-07           1           3          82          14           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =       60.0000           3          17          61          18           1        C3.2
 
together                             1.25        7.25       66.25       24.00        1.25     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      C5.4