Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.62996e-05           1          14          78           7           0        C2.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.34718e-05           3          18          74           5           0        C1.8
GOES Xray  =   1.27995e-07           1          11          80           8           0        C1.8
est. ISN   =       33.0000           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                             2.50       23.25       66.00        8.25        0.00     C1.8
 
realized                                                                                      C2.0