Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.05970e-06          32          65           3           0           0        B1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.51484e-05           5          53          39           3           0        B8.9
GOES Xray  =   1.19689e-08          36          64           0           0           0        B1.3
est. ISN   =       26.0000           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                            20.00       58.75       19.00        2.25        0.00     B2.9
 
realized                                                                                      B2.2