Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.92016e-06          39          58           3           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.75256e-06          22          74           3           1           0        B2.6
GOES Xray  =   1.17535e-08          37          63           0           0           0        B1.3
est. ISN   =       37.0000           6          49          35          10           0        B8.3
 
together                            26.00       61.00       10.25        2.75        0.00     B2.1
 
realized                                                                                      B2.1